男友太凶猛1v1高h,大地资源在线资源免费观看 ,人妻少妇精品视频二区,极度sm残忍bdsm变态

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Opinion
Home / Opinion / Featured Contributors

Risk of trade tension escalating real

By Léon Cornelissen | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2018-10-12 09:05
Share
Share - WeChat

Hit to global trade

“The conclusion of the ECB echoes earlier Bank of England simulations which suggested that in a similar scenario, US output could take a hit of 2.5 percent and global output 1 percent through trade channels alone. The Bank of England noted that the hit to global GDP would be substantially larger if everyone put up tariffs against everyone else.”

Trump’s trade war is also not just confined to China, as he has also threatened the European Union, famously complaining about German BMWs cruising around Manhattan. “Despite an apparently successful visit by the EU Commission president to the US to defuse trade tensions, Trump said at a campaign rally in West Virginia at the end of August: ‘We're going 

The estimated effects of a trade war in the first year. Source: ECB

to put a 25 percent tax on every car that comes into the United States from the European Union’,” Cornelissen said.

Dizzying numbers

The latest round of US tariffs is a 10 percent levy on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods which came into effect in September, on top of the $50 billion that came into effect in August. “Despite the slightly dizzying numbers, the products targeted so far still represent only a small part of world trade,” Cornelissen said.

“It is therefore understandable that the tariffs have not yet significantly damaged producer and consumer confidence. This goes a long way to explain the muted financial market reaction so far.”

“However, further escalation is looming. The US has threatened to hike the 10 percent tariff rate on $200 billion of goods to 25 percent at the beginning of next year if China doesn’t ‘change its ways’ – though it is still not entirely clear what the negotiation goal of the US vis-à-vis China is.”

Congressional elections

“Trump could become politically weakened in the mid-term Congressional elections on November 6, but this is unlikely to have much impact on his policies against China, as a hard line against the country is generally popular among the Democratic opposition and also in significant parts of the US business sector.”

“But it could mean that his pressure against Europe diminishes due to lack of support. With an eye on the presidential elections of 2020, Trump could choose to keep political tensions high with China, in the hope that this will increase his re-election chances.”

“Higher tariffs will thus become a permanent feature for the coming years. For investors, there is little upside in the escalating trade war. They can only hope that a more drastic escalation from current levels does not materialize.”

The author is Chief Economist at Robeco. The original headline of this opinion article was ‘Oh what a lovely trade war’. 

The opinions expressed here are those of the writer and do not represent the views of China Daily and China Daily website.

|<< Previous 1 2   
Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
主站蜘蛛池模板: 门源| 大石桥市| 昂仁县| 鹤山市| 谢通门县| 永康市| 额济纳旗| 疏勒县| 林芝县| 寿光市| 大埔县| 阜康市| 根河市| 平远县| 宝丰县| 墨竹工卡县| 香格里拉县| 东乌| 普陀区| 富锦市| 集安市| 镇赉县| 卓资县| 德钦县| 洪湖市| 湖北省| 中牟县| 宁国市| 营口市| 台南县| 裕民县| 北京市| 兰州市| 翁源县| 武夷山市| 寿光市| 黔东| 桑日县| 治县。| 枣庄市| 辽阳市|